Ua hoʻoluliluli ʻia ka moku ʻo Kaleponi Hema / Mekiko e kahi ōlaʻi o ka ʻōlaʻi ma ke awāwa ʻo Imperial ma ka auina lā Pōʻakolu, e like me ka US Geological Survey (USGS).
Ua hoʻomaka ka ʻōlaʻi ma kahi o 4:45 pm ma ka ʻākau o Westmorland ma kahi kokoke i Brawley, me ka ōlaʻi nui loa, he 4.9 ka nui, i hana ʻia ma 5:51 pm, i ʻōlelo ʻia e ka USGS.
Ua ʻike ʻia kēlā ʻōlaʻi a hiki i Oceanside a me Tijuana, e like me ka USGS.
Loaʻa i nā ōlaʻi, ma kahi o 2.5 a 4.9 ka nui.
Wahi a USGS eia paha ka mea kūpono e manaʻo ʻia.
1. Scenario One (Loaʻa paha): Ke hoʻomau nei nā ʻōlaʻi, e like me nā ʻōlaʻi a hiki i ka nui o 5.4.
ʻO ka hanana i ʻike ʻia ka hōʻemi ʻana o ke ōlaʻi i ka puʻu i nā lā he 7 e hiki mai ana. Kū paha kekahi mau ʻōlaʻi i hoʻonui ʻia me ka nui (M4.5 a 5.4), a he kumu ia e hōʻino ai i kahi wahi, ʻo ia hoʻi i nā hale nāwaliwali. ʻO nā ʻōlaʻi nui ʻoi loa (M3.0 +) paha e ʻike ʻia e ka poʻe kokoke i ke kiko.
2. Scenario ʻElua (Liʻiliʻi paha): Hiki ke ʻōlaʻi nui (ka nui o 5.5 a 6.9) i loko o nā lā 7 e hiki mai ana.
ʻO kahi hanana liʻiliʻi e hiki mai kahi ʻōlaʻi nui aʻe ke hiki mai (a i kahi M6.9). Hiki i nā ʻōlaʻi o kēia nui ke hoʻopōʻino a puni ka wahi kokoke i nā ōlaʻi i hala aʻe a e ukali ʻia e nā ʻōlaʻi e hoʻonui ai i nā ʻōlaʻi liʻiliʻi i kēlā me kēia lā. Ua hana ʻia kēia hanana i kahi hui i hala ma kahi - i ka makahiki 1981, i ka wā o kahi ōlaʻi i kēia wahi i loaʻa kahi ōlaʻi 5.8 ka nui.
3. Nānā ʻEkolu (Least paha): Hiki ke ʻōlaʻi nui loa (ka nui o 7 a ʻoi paha) i loko o nā lā 7 e hiki mai ana.
ʻO kahi hanana liʻiliʻi loa, hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā hanana ʻelua o mua, ʻo ia ka hoʻomau ʻana o ka pūpū hiki ke hoʻoulu i kahi ōlaʻi i ʻoi aku ka nui ma mua o ka M4.9 i kū ma ka 30 Kepakemapa (ie, M7.0 a ʻoi). ʻOiai he mea liʻiliʻi loa kēia, inā e hiki mai kahi ʻōlaʻi e like me ia, he hopena koʻikoʻi ia i nā kaiāulu kokoke a e ukali ʻia e nā haʻalulu e hoʻonui ana i ka nui o nā ʻōlaʻi liʻiliʻi i kēlā me kēia lā.
He aha ka poʻe e hiki ke hana e pili ana i nā ōlaʻi
Kūkākūkā ka US Geological Survey i kēlā me kēia e makaʻala i ka hiki i nā ʻōlaʻi o ka wā e hiki mai ana, keu hoʻi i ka wā a i ʻole kokoke i nā hale nāwaliwali e like me nā hale masonry i hana ʻole ʻia. Hiki i kēia puʻupuʻu ke alakaʻi i nā ʻōlaʻi nui nui a pōʻino paha i ka wā e hiki mai ana, no laila e hoʻomanaʻo i: Drop, Cover, and Hold on inā ʻoe e haʻalulu a i ʻole e loaʻa i kahi ʻōlaʻi ʻōlaʻi i hoʻoikaika ʻia e ka ʻōnaehana hoʻolaha ʻōlaʻi ShakeAlert. Ke nui nā ōlaʻi, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka ʻōlaʻi nui, ʻo ia hoʻi ka ʻoi aku ka nui o ka pōʻino.
ʻO nā ʻōlaʻi e like me ka mea i hana ʻia i kēia lā ʻaʻole ia e hōʻeha a i ʻole nā pohō nui, akā ʻo nā ʻōlaʻi 7 a ʻoi aku paha i lilo i mea weliweli.
ʻO ke ōlaʻi nui loa i kū aʻe, e like me kēia hoʻokuʻu ʻana, he ka nui o 4.9 ma 5:31 PM PDT. Aia kēia ʻōlaʻi a me nā poʻe e pili ana i kahi o nā hana seismic diffuse ma waena o ka hewa o San Andreas ma ka ʻākau a me ka hewa Imperial ma ka hema. Ua ʻike pū ʻia kēia wahi i nā puʻukū i ka wā i hala aku nei - i ʻike ʻia hoʻi ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki 1981 Westmorland, i hui pū ʻia me kahi ōlaʻi M5.8, a me ka hui o 2012 Brawley, kahi i loaʻa kahi ōlaʻi M5.4. Ua hoʻomau ka hana o nā swarms i hala no 1 a 20 mau lā, me ka lōʻihi o ka lōʻihi ma kahi o hoʻokahi pule. Ke hana ʻia nei ka puʻu o kēia manawa ma kahi o 40 mau mile (25 mile) ma ka hema o ka hui i kū kokoke i ke kahakai ʻo Bombay i ʻAukake 2020.
I loko o kahi hebedoma maʻamau, aia ma kahi o 3 i 10,000 mau manawa o kahi ōlaʻi 7+ ka nui ma kahi o kēia puʻu. I ka wā o kēia ōlaʻi nui, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hiki o nā ʻōlaʻi nui i kēia ʻāina ma mua o ka maʻamau. I kēia manawa, ke ulu nei ka ulu, a manaʻo mākou e hoʻohou i kēia wānana me ka ʻike pili kikoʻī kikoʻī ke ʻohiʻohi mākou i nā ʻike hou aku.
He aha e lawe ʻia mai kēia ʻatikala:
- This scenario occurred in a previous swarm in the area – in 1981, when a swarm in this region included a magnitude 5.
- In a typical week, there is approximately a 3 in 10,000 chance of a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the vicinity of this swarm.
- This earthquake and the associated swarm are located in an area of diffuse seismic activity between the San Andreas fault in the north and the Imperial fault to the south.
