mau huakaʻi hele gung-ho e hoʻihoʻi mai iā mākou e uwē ana i ka pae o nā makahiki gula ma mua o ka maʻi maʻi. I ka pīhoihoi o ka poʻe pessimists ʻoihana, ua lilo kēlā mau manaʻolana i mea maoli.
Wahi a kahi hōʻike Travel Market Trends e ANIXE, Hōʻike nā helu helu helu o Kepakemapa ua hoʻi mākou, a ma kekahi mau mākeke, ua ʻoi aku ma mua o ka wai kiʻekiʻe o 2019. Akā, ma mua o ka nānā ʻana i ka ʻikepili, e ʻike kākou i nā mea e hana nei ma ka ʻoihana holoʻokoʻa, a inā pili nā hopena i kēia pae o ka manaʻo maikaʻi.
Hiki ke ʻike ʻia nā hōʻailona o ka hoʻi ʻana i ka maʻamau ma nā wahi āpau o ka ʻoihana huakaʻi. No ka laʻana, hoʻolālā nā mokulele honua e hoʻonui i ka hiki ke hoʻokō i nā koi o kēia manawa.
Ma ka ALTA Leaders Forum ma Buenos Aires, ua pena nā Luna Nui o nā mokulele nui o Latin America i kahi manaʻo maikaʻi. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Roberto Alvo, ka Luna Nui o Latam Airlines Group - ka nui o ka ʻāina, "Aia mākou i ka manawa o ka hoʻihoʻi ikaika ʻana o ka ʻoihana," a ua hoʻohui ʻo Avianca CEO Adrian Neuhauser, "Ke hana nei mākou e hoʻohui i ka hiki no ka mea he makeke i koi nui ʻia i kēia mau lā.
ʻO nā helu hou aʻe mai ʻAmelika Hema, e hōʻike i ka hōʻoia ʻana ʻaʻole i ola hou ka ʻoihana huakaʻi, akā ua hoʻomaka e ulu. Ua ʻoi aku ka helu o ka poʻe holo ma Mexico a me Columbia ma mua o nā helu pre-pandemic, me ka piʻi ʻana o ka poʻe holo kaʻa he 14% a me 9%, kēlā me kēia. Ma ka liʻiliʻi ma kekahi mau wahi o ka honua, me he mea lā he hoʻomanaʻo mamao loa ʻo COVID.
ʻAʻole ma Latin America wale nō kahi e ʻike ʻia ai nā aliʻi mokulele me nā ʻakaʻaka nui ma ko lākou mau maka. Ua wehewehe ʻo Pelekikena Emirates ʻo Tim Clark i nā huakaʻi he "piha" a hiki i Malaki a ʻike ʻo ia i kahi "puka kaha" ma muli o nā pilikia limahana a me ka mālama ʻana, ʻaʻole hiki i ka hui ke hoʻopiha i ka wā pōkole. Eia naʻe, manaʻo ʻo Emirates e loaʻa i kāna mau ʻauwaʻa piha a lele i ke kauwela e hiki mai ana.
ʻO nā manaʻo o ka pelekikena o Emirates ua hoʻopiʻi pū ʻia e nā Luna Nui o Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Delta Airlines, a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ka mea i kēia manawa i ka heihei e hoʻonui i ka hiki ke hoʻokō i ka koi o ka poʻe huakaʻi hele.
ʻO ka hiki ʻole ke lilo i nūhou maikaʻi no nā huakaʻi i ʻōlelo ʻia no ka mea ʻo ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe ʻaʻole wale ka hopena o ka pilikia o ke kumukūʻai o ke ola honua akā ma muli o ka hiki ʻole o nā mokulele. Eia nō naʻe, me ka hoʻolālā ʻana o nā mokulele e hoʻihoʻi i kā lākou mau ʻauwaʻa holoʻokoʻa i ka lewa i ka wā hiki loa, hiki ke hoʻemi ʻia ke kumukūʻai i ka hapaha lua o 2023 i ka loaʻa ʻana o ka lako me ka noi. Nūhou maikaʻi no ka poʻe e hoʻolālā ana i kahi hoʻomaha kauwela 2023.
Kuhi ʻia ka huakaʻi mokulele e hoʻi i ka piko ma 2024
Ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe o ka ʻoihana, ke nānā nei nā mea. Ma ka Poalua, ua hoʻopaʻa ʻo Airbnb i kāna loaʻa kālā kiʻekiʻe loa a me ka loaʻa kālā ma ka hapaha 3 o 2022. ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o ka noi i hoʻonui i ka loaʻa kālā o ka hui ma 46% i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i nā helu o ka makahiki i hala no ka hapaha like.
Eia kekahi, ʻo ka 2022 US Family Travel Survey, i hoʻokuʻu ʻia i ka Pōʻakolu i hala, e hōʻike ana he 85% o nā mākua ʻAmelika e hoʻolālā e huakaʻi me kā lākou mau keiki i nā mahina 12 e hiki mai ana.
No laila, ʻoiai e hoʻomau ʻia ka piʻi ʻana o ka hoʻonui nui i ka noi huakaʻi, ʻōlelo paha kekahi ma muli o nā laka a me nā mea paʻa, ke lilo nei nā huahana huakaʻi i ka quasi-inelastic waiwai, kahi e mau ai ka noi e like me ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai.
Nūhou maikaʻi no nā mea pāʻani ʻoihana huakaʻi
ʻAe, ke holo mau nei ka nūhou maikaʻi. Hōʻike ka ʻikepili ʻaʻole i hoʻokaʻawale ʻia kēia hoʻihoʻi ʻana i kekahi mau wahi o ka ʻoihana akā he mea ia e ʻike ʻia ma ka papa. No laila, me ka ʻole o ka hopohopo, e nānā kākou i ka ʻikepili i hōʻiliʻili ʻia mai ka engine Resfinity Booking e ʻike inā ʻike ʻia ka mea e hana nei ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe o ka ʻoihana e ka ʻoiaʻiʻo o kēia mau helu.
ʻO ka pōmaikaʻi a me ke ʻano o nā mahina i hala iho nei, e hoʻomau ana ma waho o ka wā hoʻomaha, e hōʻike ana ʻaʻole hopohopo hou nā huakaʻi i ka maʻi maʻi. Akā, ke hele nei lākou e like me ka wā ma mua, a pili i nā fluctuations koi e like me nā fluctuations o kēlā me kēia mahina ma mua o ka maʻi maʻi.
Ua kūpono nā mahina i hala iho nei i kēia thesis. Ua loaʻa iā ʻOkakopa 2022 kahi hāʻule kokoke i 12% o nā puke e pili ana i ka hopena o Kepakemapa. Eia nō naʻe, ua hōʻike ko lākou leo i ka 97.5% o ʻOkakopa 2019 pae honua a hiki i ka 106% i ka mākeke Kelemania. He lono maikaʻi loa ia akā he mea kupanaha no ka pilikia o ka ikehu o kēia manawa a me ke kaua e hoʻomau nei ma Ukraine.
I ʻOkakopa 2022, hele nui nā mākaʻikaʻi Kelemania i nā wahi kūloko - Turkey, US, a me Sepania. ʻOiai aia nō ma ke kūlana kiʻekiʻe, ʻo ka hapa nui o nā hoʻopaʻa ʻana a ka hope i ka hāʻule nui i kēlā me kēia mahina a me kēlā me kēia makahiki. Ua hoʻopaʻa ʻia nā hāʻule nui ma nā wahi hoʻomaha ʻē aʻe e like me Italia a me Helene. Ma ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana, ua hoʻopaʻa ʻia nā piʻi nui me ka noi no nā huakaʻi i ʻAigupita, kahi i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma nā hōkele nui a hiki i ka hopena o Nowemapa.
Ma ʻOkakopa 2022 - no ka manawa mua i nā mahina he nui - ua hāʻawi nā hale hōkele Spanish i Antalya, me ka ʻike ʻana i ka hāʻule ʻana o nā puke i kahi kokoke i 40% akā ke waiho nei ka lua o ka huakaʻi kaulana loa no ka mahina. Ua kaulana loa ʻo Hurghada ma ʻAigupita, e like me kekahi mau wahi Kelemania, me Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, a me Cologne.
ʻO nā wahi kaulana loa i ʻOkakopa 2022 ʻo Hurghada, Berlin, Prague, a me 2 mau hōkele Turkish kaulana - Side a me Istanbul. I kēlā me kēia mahina, ʻo Hurghada a me Prague, ua hauʻoli ma kahi o 40% ka piʻi ʻana o ka kaulana. No Prague, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kēia ulu ʻana i ka wā ma mua o ka maʻi maʻi maʻi - ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ka māhele o ka mālama ʻana he 32%.
Ma mua o ka maʻi maʻi, ʻo Berlin a me Hurghada ka mea kaulana loa i waena o nā mākaʻikaʻi Kelemania i ka manawa like. Aia ʻo Roma i ka 5 kiʻekiʻe i kēlā manawa, ʻoiai ua hāʻule kona kaulana ma mua o 16% i ka mahina i hala.
I ʻOkakopa 2022 - e like me 3 mau makahiki i hala aku nei - ua hoʻonui ʻia ka hoihoi i nā makana hoʻopaʻa mua (31-60 mau lā a ʻoi aku paha), e piʻi ana ma kahi o 45% mai ka mahina i hala. Hoʻopili pili paha kēia i nā hoʻopaʻa ʻana o ka makahiki hou a me nā hōkele ski i makemake nui ʻia e nā mākaʻikaʻi Kelemania.
Nā kū i kēia au
Ua ʻike ʻia ke ʻano o ka maopopo ʻole o nā manawa o kēia manawa ua emi i ke kua a ke ulu wikiwiki nei ka hoihoi i kēia mau makana. Eia nō naʻe, ʻo ka ʻike maʻi maʻi o nā manawa i hala aku nei e hōʻike ana i ka hāʻule ʻana a me ka hoʻoilo e kūpono wale i ka hoʻolālā huakaʻi inā loaʻa nā makana i ka hiki ke kāpae manuahi.
ʻO kekahi mahina ma ka lālani e hōʻoia i ke ʻano e hōʻike ana i ka ʻaoʻao a me ka nui o ka hui o ka poʻe huakaʻi maʻamau-ʻo nā hui o 2 mau kānaka a me nā mea hoʻokahi. Eia naʻe, ʻo ka hapa o nā puke hoʻokahi i ʻOkakopa 2022 he 9% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ʻOkakopa 2019.
Hōʻike ka ʻikepili e pili ana ka hapa nui o nā huakaʻi 1-2 me ka kaulana nui o nā lumi me ka ʻaina kakahiaka a me nā lumi me ka ʻole o ka ʻai. Eia nō naʻe, ʻo ka pākēneka o ka hope, ʻoiai e hoʻonui ana i ka 10% i kēlā me kēia mahina, e mau ana ka 17% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka manawa like ma mua o ka maʻi maʻi.
E pili ana i nā kumukūʻai, ma hope o ka wā hoʻomaha, ke kiʻekiʻe loa ka noi a me nā kumukūʻai no nā lawelawe hōkele, ʻike ʻia nā haʻahaʻa liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi, ʻoi aku ma ka mākeke Kelemania, a hiki i kahi kokoke i 6% no kēlā me kēia kanaka. Eia nō naʻe, ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ka wā pre-pandemic, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai awelika o kēia manawa a hiki i ka 15% no kēlā me kēia kanaka a i ʻole 20% no ka pō. Ma ke ao holoʻokoʻa, ʻoi aku ka nui o kēia ʻokoʻa, a ʻoi aku ka ʻokoʻa ma mua o ka mākeke Kelemania.
Ma ka ʻaoʻao hoʻokahi, ʻo kēia ma muli o ka makemake o ka ʻoihana hōkele e hana i nā poho ma hope o ka maʻi maʻi. Eia nō naʻe, ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ke kaumaha nei ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hoʻokele waiwai o ʻEulopa a hoʻololi nui i nā loli kumukūʻai.
ʻO ka wā hoʻomaha i lawe mai i ka hoʻihoʻi i manaʻo ʻia i ka mākeke mākaʻikaʻi. Ua paʻa ke ʻano maikaʻi no nā mahina he nui, e pane ana i nā hoʻololi koi e like me ka wā ma mua o ka maʻi maʻi. Hiki ke ʻōlelo ʻia ua aʻo ka poʻe i ka huakaʻi ʻoiai nā mea āpau, mai ka manaʻo o nā hui huakaʻi, he nūhou maikaʻi loa.
ʻO ka mea pōʻino, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ka honua kiʻekiʻe i hoʻohui ʻia e ke kaua ma Ukraine a me ka pilikia o ka meaʻai a me ka ikehu hiki ke hoʻopau i kēia kiʻi idyllic o ka mākeke mākaʻikaʻi. Aia ma mua ka wā hoʻoilo-hoʻoilo - ʻo ia hoʻi, ka exacerbation o nā maʻi maʻi.
ʻEhia ka nui o kēia mau mea e hōʻike ʻia i ka dynamics mākeke mākaʻikaʻi i nā mahina e hiki mai ana? E pale anei ka maʻi maʻi i ka poʻe mai ka hele hou ʻana i nā hale hoʻomaha hoʻololi? ʻO wai nā wahi e hōʻike ʻia i kahi paʻi e kūʻē i ka hoʻemi ʻana? Na ka manawa e haʻi.
