Nā kulu waiwai o 100% a ʻoi paha: Ua lūlū ʻia ka ʻoihana hōkele honua e COVID-19

Ma ka loiloi mua o ka piha pono-a-poho hana mai ka Covid-19 ʻO ka maʻi maʻi maʻi i loko o ka ʻoihana hoʻokipa honua, ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo Malaki he mahina hoʻomāinoino, me ka US, ʻEulopa, ʻAsia a me Middle East e hoʻopaʻa ana i nā hāʻule o ka waiwai i kēlā me kēia makahiki he 100% a ʻoi aʻe paha, ʻoiai ua hoʻomau ka laha ʻana o ka maʻi maʻi. pani i ka huakaʻi.

I kēia lā, aia ma mua o 2.7 miliona mau hihia o Covid-19 honua, he hapakolu o ia i loko o ka US, kahi hotel performance predictably nosedived i loko o Malaki, ma hope o ka hapanui banal Feberuari.

ʻO ka loaʻa kālā o ka hana ma kēlā me kēia lumi i loaʻa (GOPPAR) ua emi iho 110.6% YOY i $-12.71. ʻO ka hāʻule ʻekolu-helu ʻoi aku ka hapa nui o ka emi ʻana o ka hapa nui i hoʻopaʻa ʻia e ka poʻe loea ʻoihana mai ka wā i hoʻomaka ai lākou e hoʻopaʻa i ka ʻikepili US. ʻO ke kiʻekiʻe ma mua he -10.4% i Malaki 2015. ʻO Malaki 2020 hoʻi i hōʻailona i ka manawa mua i hoʻopaʻa ai ka US i kahi waiwai GOPPAR maikaʻi ʻole.

ʻO ka emi ʻana o ka GOPPAR ma muli o nā hāʻule nui ma ka ʻaoʻao loaʻa. Ua emi iho ka RevPAR no ka mahina i ka 64.4%, ua hoʻoikaika nui ʻia e ka hāʻule ʻana o 48.8-pakeneka o ka noho ʻana i ka 31.5%. ʻO ka manaʻo e ʻoi aku ka pilikia o ka noho ʻana o ʻApelila, ʻoiai ua wehe ʻia nā hōkele he nui i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Malaki.

ʻO ka emi ʻana o RevPAR, i hui pū ʻia me kahi hāʻule ʻoi aku ma mua o 65% i ka nui o ka F&B RevPAR, alakaʻi i kahi 62.1% ka emi ʻana o ka huina kālā (TRevPAR), ka emi nui loa mai Ianuali 2016, i ka wā i iho ai ʻo TRevPAR i 8.2% YOY.

I ka maloʻo ʻana o ka laina kiʻekiʻe, ua emi nā kumukūʻai ma Malaki, ma ke kumu o kēlā me kēia lumi i loaʻa, akā ʻai nō naʻe i ka loaʻa kālā i hoʻemi ʻia. Ua emi iho na lilo a pau i puunaue ole ia, oiai ua emi iho ka huina o na koina hana ma ke keena o kela ame keia lumi he 21% YOY. Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻole i kūlike ka mālama kālā i ka hāʻule ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā, ʻoiai he nui nā hōkele i mālama i kekahi mau pae o nā limahana, ʻoiai ma waena o nā hōkele i pani ʻia.

Ua hoʻololi maikaʻi ʻia ka palena kālā no ka mahina, i lalo o 52.8 pakeneka helu i -11.6%.

 

ʻOi aku ka emi o ka loaʻa kālā o ʻEulopa ma mua o GFC

ʻO ka hana ma ʻEulopa inevitably nosedived, pū kekahi. ʻOiai ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia ka ʻikepili o Pepeluali, ʻike ʻo Malaki i ka GOPPAR no ka mahina i hāʻule i kahi moʻolelo 115.9%, ʻo ka nui o ka YOY emi mai ʻApelila 2009, i ka wā i hāʻule ai ʻo GOPPAR i ka 37.9% i ka mānoanoa o ka Global Financial Crisis. ʻO ia ka manawa mua mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o HotStats e ʻimi i ka ʻikepili ʻEulopa i kēlā me kēia mahina ma ʻOkakopa 1996 i hoʻololi maikaʻi ʻia ʻo GOPPAR ma ke ʻano he waiwai - €8.33.

Ua emi iho ʻo RevPAR i ka 66.2% YOY, ʻo ka hopena o kahi hāʻule o 44.6-pakeneka o ka noho ʻana, i hui pū ʻia me ka hāʻule o 11% YOY i ka awelika. I ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā ancillary, ua hoʻemi ʻo TRevPAR i ka 61.6%, ʻo ia ka hāʻule nui loa o YOY i ka KPI mai ʻApelila 2009, i ka wā i hōʻole ai ʻo TRevPAR i 23.5%.

Hōʻike ka ʻikepili e loaʻa ana ʻo COVID-19 i ka loaʻa kālā a me ka loaʻa kālā ~ 3x ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī ma mua o ka Global Financial Crisis a ~ 4x paʻakikī ma mua o 9/11.

Ua hui pū ʻia ka loaʻa kālā me ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai pālua, ka huahana o ka pani ʻana o ka hōkele, nā hana i hoʻemi ʻia a me nā limahana māmā. Ua emi iho na koina o na limahana he 28.8% YOY ma ke kumu o ka lumi i loaa.

Ua emi iho ka huina o na koina ma ka 25.3% YOY.

Ua emi iho ka palena o ka waiwai i ka 45.7 pakeneka i ka -13.1%, ʻo ia ka manawa mua i hoʻopaʻa ʻia kahi palena waiwai maikaʻi ʻole no ka ʻāina.

 

Aia i lalo o Asia-Pacific

Ua nānā ka poʻe ʻoihana hōkele i nā hopena o Pepeluali mai Asia-Pacific ma ke ʻano he hōʻailona o ka mea e hiki mai ana no ke koena o ka honua, no ka mea, ua hoʻopilikia ʻia ka ʻāina, ʻo Kina, i nā pule he nui ma mua o ka US, ʻEulopa a me ka Middle East.

ʻO ka nūhou maikaʻi mai nā ʻāpana o ka ʻāina ke lohi nei ka neʻe ʻana o ka maʻi. Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻole hiki i ka ʻāina holoʻokoʻa ke pakele i kahi Malaki pōʻino, i hōʻailona ʻia e ka emi ʻana o 117.8% ma GOPPAR, kahi hāʻule ʻē aʻe, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka moʻolelo i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i hoʻokahi mahina ma mua, i ka wā i iho ai ʻo GOPPAR i 98.9%.

Ma hope o ka hopena o Pepeluali ma GOPPAR ma ke ʻano he waiwai, ua hoʻololi ʻia i ka maikaʻi ma Malaki ma -$11.22.

ʻO ka hoʻonui nui ʻana i ka pohō i ka lā Malaki he mea wānana paha ia o nā poho hoʻonui ʻia no ka US, ʻEulopa a me Middle East i ʻApelila.

Ma hope o ke ʻano, ua iho ʻo TRevPAR i ka mahina i kahi moʻolelo 75.3% YOY, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kāna moʻolelo mua o -52.5% YOY i loaʻa i hoʻokahi mahina ma mua. ʻO ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā o nā lumi a me ka F&B i hoʻemi i ka loaʻa kālā, me ka emi ʻana o ka mua he 76.2% YOY.

ʻO ka nui o nā kumukūʻai ma luna o ka lumi hoʻokahi i hoʻemi ʻia he 40% YOY.

Ua hāʻule ka palena kālā no ka mahina i loko o ka ʻāina maikaʻi ʻole ma -27.4% ma hope o ka ʻoki ʻana i kahi palena maikaʻi loa i Pepeluali ma 0.9%.

Ke hoʻomau nei ʻo Kina, ka genesis i ʻike ʻia o ka coronavirus, i ka hana maikaʻi ʻole ma ka laulā o nā KPI i kēlā me kēia mahina, akā aia nā hōʻailona o ka holomua. Ua piʻi ka noho ʻana ma Malaki i ka 7.3 pakeneka ma mua o Pepeluali, a ʻoiai ʻo GOPPAR i loko o ka ʻulaʻula, ʻoi aku ka 64% kiʻekiʻe ma Malaki ma mua o Pepeluali i ka waiwai kālā.

Ma ka moku ʻo Hubei, kahi i ʻike mua ʻia ai ka coronavirus, ua piʻi ka noho ʻana ma Malaki i 58.9%, he 11-pakeneka wale nō ka emi ʻana mai ka manawa like o ka makahiki i hala. ʻOiai ʻo ka hapa nui o kēlā noho ʻana he hana ia o nā limahana lapaʻau e hoʻohana ana i nā hōkele no nā hale noho, ua maikaʻi ʻo GOPPAR no ka mahina ma $22.60, ma hope o kahi mahina maikaʻi ʻole o Pepeluali.

 

Hikina Waena ʻAʻole Immune

ʻAʻole i mālama ʻia ka Middle East i Malaki. ʻOiai ʻaʻole i hoʻowahāwahā ʻia ʻo GOPPAR i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka maikaʻi ʻole ma ke kumu kālā, ua emi iho ʻo 98.4% YOY, kahi moʻolelo no ka ʻāina a kiʻekiʻe loa mai ka hāʻule ʻana o 74.3% YOY i Iulai 2013, kahi manawa o ka haunaele kīwila i komo pū me ka Egyptian. hoʻokahuli aupuni.

Ua iho pū ʻo TRevPAR i kahi moʻolelo 61.7% i ka mahina, ʻo ke kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe o ka YOY maikaʻi ʻole mai Iune 2015, i ka wā i emi ai ka metric 43.9% YOY. Ua emi iho ʻo RevPAR i ka 62.7% YOY, i alakaʻi ʻia e kahi hāʻule o ka helu 41.5 pakeneka o ka noho ʻana i 34.2%.

ʻO nā lilo ma hope o kahi alahele like e like me nā wahi ʻē aʻe, ke kāʻei ʻana iā YOY, akā e lawe mau ana i kahi hapa nui o ka loaʻa kālā. Ua emi iho nā kumukūʻai hana ma 25.8% YOY akā ua piʻi aʻe he 23.6 pakeneka ma ke ʻano he pakeneka o ka loaʻa kālā.

ʻO ka nui o nā kumukūʻai ma luna o ka lumi hoʻokahi i hoʻemi ʻia he 27% YOY.

ʻAʻole maikaʻi maikaʻi ka palena kālā no ka mahina ma 1.5%.

 

Outlook

Ke emi mai nei ka COVID-19 i nā pule a me nā mahina e hiki mai ana a wehe hou nā hōkele, ke manaʻo nei e piʻi ka hana hōkele mai ka hohonu i kēia manawa. Akā me ka koi pili kokoke i ka ulu ʻana o GDP a me nā manaʻolana o ka hāʻule ʻana o ka helu ʻelua i ka hapaha lua ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa, e paʻakikī ka poʻe hōkele e hoʻonui i ka loaʻa kālā i ke koena o ka makahiki a e kali paha a hiki i ka loaʻa. he lāʻau lapaʻau e ʻike ai i ka maʻamau o ka loaʻa.

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