Ke paʻakikī nei ke kālā no nā mokulele hou no nā mokulele, akā mākaukau ka nui o nā mea lawe e hopu i nā kau lawe i wehe ʻia ma Boeing a i ʻole Airbus, kahi ʻike hou i loaʻa.
He kanaono pākēneka o nā mokulele e pane ana i ka noiʻi honua a UBS Investment Research e ʻōlelo nei ʻaʻole loaʻa ke kālā no nā mokulele hou ma nā ʻōlelo kūpono. A kokoke i ka hapalua o ka poʻe e hoʻolālā ana e lawe i kahi mokulele i nā mahina 12-18 e hiki mai ana e ʻōlelo nei ʻaʻole lākou i hoʻopaʻa kālā.
ʻAʻole i hōʻike ʻo UBS i nā inoa o ka poʻe pane i kāna noiʻi akā ua ʻōlelo lākou ua kokoke lākou i kahi hapakolu o nā mea hana ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa me 100 a ʻoi aku paha nā mokulele i kā lākou mau ʻauwaʻa.
ʻOiai e ʻōlelo ana ʻo Boeing ua hoʻopaʻa ʻia ke kālā no ka aneane āpau o kāna hoʻopuka ʻana i kēia makahiki, ua ʻōlelo ka poʻe kahiko o ka ʻoihana he paʻakikī paha ka makahiki 2010 no nā mea hana mokulele inā ʻaʻole e maʻalahi nā kūlana hōʻaiʻē. ʻO ka pōʻeleʻele o ka pōʻeleʻele i koi ʻia ai ʻo Boeing e hoʻolaha i ka pule i hala e hōʻemi ana i ka hana ʻana o 777 widebody jet mai ʻehiku o ka mahina a i ʻelima i Iune 2010, a ua wānana kekahi poʻe loiloi e hōʻoki ʻia ana ka hana i 737 narrowbodies ma hope o kēia makahiki. No kāna ʻāpana, ke hoʻomau nei ʻo Airbus ʻaʻole pono ia e ʻoki i ka huahana ma 2010 ma muli o nā backlogs moʻolelo.
Ua kōkua kēlā mau backlogs i ka pale ʻana i nā mea hana mokulele ʻelua mai ka pōʻino o ka hoʻokele waiwai honua a hiki i kēia manawa. ʻOiai ʻo 28% o nā mea pane i ka noiʻi UBS e ʻōlelo ana e hoʻopaneʻe lākou i ka hoʻouna ʻana i kahi mokulele ma ke kauoha, ʻōlelo ka pākēneka like e ʻimi lākou e neʻe i kā lākou hoʻopuka inā loaʻa nā slots mua.
Akā ke piʻi nei ka noi honua no nā mokulele hou me ka noi no nā lawelawe kaʻa a me nā ukana. ʻO 38% wale nō o nā mokulele ʻEulopa e pane ana i ka noiʻi UBS e ʻōlelo nei aia lākou i nā kūkākūkā no nā mokulele hou a i ʻole e hoʻolālā i loko o hoʻokahi makahiki, mai ka 88% i hoʻokahi makahiki i hala. A ʻo 33% wale nō o nā mea pane ʻAsia e ʻōlelo nei e hoʻolālā lākou e kūʻai i nā kamaʻilio i loko o ka makahiki e hiki mai ana, mai ka 83% i hoʻokahi makahiki i hala.
Ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka noi ma ka mākeke ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, kahi i hoʻokaʻawale ʻia ai ka ʻoihana mokulele US e hoʻohuli i kahi waiwai liʻiliʻi i kēia makahiki. He kanaono pākēneka o ka poʻe pane mai ka ʻāina e ʻōlelo nei aia lākou i loko a i ʻole e hoʻolālā ana e kūkākūkā i loko o ka makahiki e hiki mai ana, mai ka 55% o ka makahiki i hala.
Akā ua lohi ka hoʻomaha ʻana o nā mokulele kahiko ma muli o ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai wahie mai nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe i ke kauwela i hala. He kanakolukumamālua pakeneka o ka poʻe pane i ka noiʻi UBS e ʻōlelo ana lākou e hoʻolālā e hoʻolōʻihi i ka hoʻomaha ʻana o nā mokulele kahiko ma muli o ke kumukūʻai wahie, mai ka 38% ʻehā mau mahina i hala. "ʻO ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻomaha ʻana o nā mokulele e hōʻemi i ka makemake o nā mokulele hou," wahi a ka mea loiloi UBS ʻo David E. Strauss.
Ma ka Pōʻakahi, ua hui pū ʻo Strauss i kahi hui o nā mea loiloi i manaʻoʻiʻo e ʻoki ʻo Boeing i nā kumukūʻai 737 ma muli o ka nāwaliwali o ka noi. "ʻOiai e paʻa ana ʻo Boeing i kāna helu 737 i kēia manawa, ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei mākou he pono ka ʻoki 30% -40%," i kākau ai ʻo ia i kahi palapala noiʻi i kāna mau mea kūʻai. "Ma muli o nā manawa alakaʻi pōkole, manaʻo mākou i kahi neʻe haʻahaʻa ma 737 e kamaʻilio ʻia ma hope o kēia makahiki."
I kēia manawa, ua hoʻohaʻahaʻa ka mea loiloi Cowen & Co. ʻo Cai von Rumohr i ka Pōʻakahi i kāna helu ma ka waiwai o Boeing i "underperform" mai ka "neutral," e hōʻike ana i kahi hāʻule lōʻihi o ka mākeke mokulele kīwila a me ka ʻike ʻana o ka hui i nā ʻoki mai ka hoʻoponopono hou ʻana o ka pūʻali koa US.
Ua wānana ʻo Von Rumohr e ʻoki hou aʻe i nā kumukūʻai hana Boeing. "Ke ʻae ʻole i ka hoʻihoʻi ikaika ʻana i ka hoʻokele waiwai a me ka ulu ʻana o ke kaʻa i ka makahiki 2010, manaʻo mākou e like paha ka emi ʻana o ka lawe ʻana me ka awelika ʻehā makahiki o ka hāʻule ʻana i hala, ʻoiai inā e hemo nā mākeke hōʻaiʻē," wahi āna.
Akā ua haʻi hou ʻo Morgan Stanley ʻo Heidi Wood i kāna helu "kaumaha" ma ke kumukūʻai o Boeing, me ka ʻike ʻana ʻo ke kumukūʻai kaʻana "e ʻoki kokoke ana i nā haʻahaʻa post-9-11 me ka ʻike ʻoi aku ka lōʻihi."
