Ma waena o nā makahiki 2022 a hiki i 2031, ʻo ke kumukūʻai kālā US o ka hana mokulele he $2.94 trillion. ʻEhia ia mau mokulele? E hoʻomalu ʻo Airbus a me Boeing i kēlā mākeke no ka 96.7% o ka nui o ka hana.
Ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo ka hana ʻana i kēlā me kēia makahiki ma maunakea e piʻi mai 1,156 i 2022 i 2,111 i 2029. Ma hope o kēlā, akā naʻe, ma muli o ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana i ka pōʻaiapili, e hāʻule ka hana i 2,037 mokulele mokulele a laila hoʻi i ka 2,051 i ka makahiki e hiki mai ana i 2031.
Pono, no laila e pane i ka nīnau… ma waena Airbus a me Boeing, e hana lakou i 18,066 mokulele mokulele nui. ʻO ia ka aneane 97% o ka hana, 613 hilahila wale nō o ka huina nui o 18,679 i loko o kēlā mau makahiki.
ʻO wai ka mea e kūkulu hou aku: Airbus a i ʻole Boeing?
Kuhi ʻia ʻo Airbus e kūkulu i 9,774 mau mokulele kalepa nui i ka wā wānana, aʻo Boeing e wānana e kūkulu i 8,292. Kuhi ʻia ʻo Airbus e alakaʻi i ka mākeke i ka hana narrowbody, aʻo Boeing ka wānana e alakaʻi i ka mākeke i ka hana widebody.
Ua piʻi nui ka noi no nā mokulele mokulele nui ma 2021.
Hoʻohui ʻia, ua hoʻopaʻa ʻo Airbus a me Boeing i 1,666 mau kauoha nui no nā mokulele ʻoihana nui ma 2021, aneane ʻekolu mau kauoha nui i hoʻopaʻa ʻia e nā hui ʻelua i 561.
"Ke noho mau nei ka mākeke mokulele mokulele nui he Airbus/Boeing duopoly," wahi a Forecast International Senior Aerospace Analyst Raymond Jaworowski. "Akā naʻe, ke kū nei nā mea hana nunui ʻelua i kekahi mau mea paʻakikī, ʻoi aku hoʻi i ka ʻāpana haiki. ʻO nā pōkole hou e komo ana i ka mākeke ka COMAC C919 mai Kina a me ka Irkut MC-21 mai Rusia.
"Ua holomua nui ʻo Boeing i ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana i kāna polokalamu 737 MAX ma ke ala. Ua hoʻomaka hou ka hui i nā mea kūʻai aku o MAX i Dekemaba 2020.
Ua kūlana maikaʻi ʻo Boeing i ka mākeke widebody, kahi i hōʻike ʻia ai kāna mau mīkini māhoe 777 a me 787 mau mea kaulana. Ua loaʻa ka papahana 787 i kahi hiccup hana ma 2021, e hoʻokuʻu ana i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka manawa pōkole, akā pono kēia e hōʻoia i kahi pilikia pōkole wale nō.
He aha ka mea hou i ka paipu
No ka 777, ke hoʻokele nei ʻo Boeing i ka hoʻololi ʻana mai nā mana Classic i ka moʻo 777X hou, kahi neʻe i lilo i mea paʻakikī i waena o kahi mākeke widebody paʻakikī. Hoʻopau ʻia ka hana ʻana o ka ʻehā-engine 747-8 i 2022.
Ua hana hou ʻo Airbus i kāna laina huahana. Ma ka ʻāpana haiki, ua lanakila nui nā ʻano ʻano A320neo hou i nā lālā kumu o ka ʻohana A320 i ka hana. Ke kau nei nā ʻano A321LR a me A321XLR o ka A321neo ma kahi liʻiliʻi loa i loko o ka mākeke pani Boeing 757. ʻO ka loaʻa ʻana o ka CSeries mai Bombardier ua hāʻawi iā Airbus me kahi huahana, i kapa hou ʻia ʻo A220, i hoʻonoho ʻia ma ka ʻaoʻao haʻahaʻa o ka mākeke liʻiliʻi.
Ma ke kahua ākea, ke hoʻololi nei ʻo Airbus i ka A330 mua me ka A330neo i hana hou ʻia. Ua hoʻopau ʻia ka piʻi ʻana o ka A350 e ka maʻi maʻi akā ua manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomaka hou i ka makahiki 2023. Ke kūkulu ʻia nei kahi mana ukana o ka A350. Ua pau ka hana ʻana o ka 500+ kaʻa A380 i 2021.
He aha e lawe ʻia mai kēia ʻatikala:
- As for the 777, Boeing is currently managing a transition from the Classic versions to the new 777X series, a move that has become somewhat complicated in the midst of a difficult widebody market.
- Airbus is projected to lead the market in narrowbody production, while Boeing is forecast to lead the market in widebody production.
- The 787 program did suffer a production hiccup in 2021, causing a temporary suspension of deliveries, but this should prove to be only a short-term obstacle.