Ma hope o ka hakakā ʻana me COVID ma mua o ʻelua mau makahiki, ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia ka ʻoihana mokulele e hoʻihoʻi hou - me ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻauwaʻa he 4% i kēlā me kēia makahiki i nā makahiki he 10 e hiki mai ana, e like me ka Global Fleet & MRO Forecast 2022-2032.

Akā ʻoiai ke koi nei ka noi honua pent-up i ka huakaʻi ea i nā pae pre-pandemic e 2023, e kū hou ka ʻoihana i ka piʻi ʻana. hoʻohemo lā a me kona nele i na hooponopono koke e hoemi ia lakou.

ʻO ka hōʻike i manaʻo nui ʻia, i kēia manawa i loko o kāna mau makahiki ʻekolu, e ʻeli hohonu i nā hoʻopuka mokulele mokulele a me nā mea waiwai - a me ka hana aerospace - e hāʻawi i kahi ʻike piha o ka nui a me ke ʻano o nā ʻauwaʻa kalepa i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana. Hōʻike ka manaʻo i ka ulu ʻana ma ka honua a mai kahi hiʻohiʻona kūloko. Hoʻohui ʻia, nānā ʻo ia i ka mālama ʻana, hoʻoponopono, a me nā lawelawe overhaul (MRO) e pono ai ka ʻauwaʻa.

Loaʻa nā ʻike nui no ka hōʻike 2022-2032:

Hoʻonohonoho ʻia nā ʻauwaʻa honua e ulu i 38,100 mau mokulele e 2032 - kahi ulu ulu hui o 4.1% i loko o nā makahiki he ʻumi.
E hoʻonui ka mokulele Narrowbody i ka ʻāpana nui o ka ʻauwaʻa - 64% i Ianuali 2032 ma mua o 58% i Ianuali 2020 - ʻoiai ka lohi o ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana o nā kaʻa honua ma hope o ka COVID-19 ke hoʻohaʻahaʻa nei i ka nui o nā widebodies i ka lawelawe.
ʻAʻole hiki ka ʻauwaʻa i kona kiʻekiʻe pre-pandemic ma kahi o 28,000 a hiki i ka hapa mua o 2023
Ua hoʻonui ʻia ka ʻauwaʻa ukana honua i 3% a ʻo ka hoʻololi ʻana o nā mokulele mokulele i nā mea lawe ukana i haki i nā moʻolelo, mahalo i ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka helu ʻelua i ka noi me ka pahū pili pili COVID i ke kūʻai pūnaewele a me ka nalowale o ka ʻōpū o ka ukana.
Hoʻololi hou ʻia ka ʻāpana MRO e nā ʻauwaʻa i ka neʻe ʻana, ʻoiai e hoʻomaka ana nā mokulele e lawe i nā mea hou, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka wahie narrowbodies a hoʻāʻo e hoʻopau i nā mokulele kahiko e pono ai nā manawa mālama koʻikoʻi.
Ma 2030, manaʻo ʻia ka koi ʻana o MRO e hōʻea i $ 118 biliona, 13% ma lalo o ka wānana pre-COVID o $ 135 biliona, e hōʻike ana i ka ulu nalowale mai COVID.

Aia ka manaʻo manaʻo ua huli ka ʻoihana i ke kihi a ke piʻi nei i luna - akā e hoʻopiha ʻia nā makahiki he 10 e hiki mai ana me nā pilikia he nui e hoʻāʻo ai i ke kūpaʻa o ka ʻoihana e like me ka wā ma mua.

ʻAʻohe hopena hoʻololi maʻalahi

ʻO ka mokulele ma kahi o 2.3% o ka huina hoʻohemo lā i 2021 - ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka lawe ʻana i ke alanui. Akā ʻo ka hiki ke hoʻololi i nā kaʻa uila i nā makahiki he 10 e hiki mai ana e hōʻemi i ka ʻāpana o ke kaʻa alanui a hoʻoulu i ka mokulele - hiki ke hoʻonui i ke kaomi ma ka ʻoihana.

ʻAʻohe hoʻoponopono maʻalahi o ka mokulele ʻoiai he mau makahiki o ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka pono wahie o nā mokulele. ʻOiai e hoʻomau ʻia ana ka noiʻi a me ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā ʻenekini hydrogen a me ka uila ma ke ʻano he pani no nā mokulele hoʻokele wahie mōʻalihaku maʻamau, ʻo ia mau ʻōnaehana hoʻohuli kipi ma kahi o 15 a 20 mau makahiki mai ka hana ʻoihana. A ʻo kahi mea ʻē aʻe - ka wahie lele hoʻomau (SAF) - ʻaʻole lawa ka mana hana a i ʻole ka waiwai kūpono e hana ai no nā mokulele a i ʻole nā mea hana SAF.

E like me ka maikaʻi ʻole e like me ka COVID-19 no ka mokulele, ʻo ka luʻu o nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana e like me ka haunaele. Pono ka ʻoihana i nā hoʻolālā akamai e kiʻi iā ia iho i kahi kūlana maikaʻi aʻe e ka 2030s.

He aha e lawe ʻia mai kēia ʻatikala:

The widely anticipated report, now in its third decade, digs deep into commercial aircraft deliveries and inventories — as well as aerospace production — to provide a comprehensive view of the size and composition of the commercial fleet over the next decade.
The fleet won’t reach its pre-pandemic peak of almost 28,000 until the first half of 2023The dedicated global cargo fleet grew 3% and conversions of passenger aircraft to freight carriers broke records, thanks to a double-digit expansion in demand with the COVID-related explosion in online shopping and the loss of cargo belly capacity.
But the ability to transition to electric vehicles over the next 10 years is likely to reduce road transport’s share and push aviation’s up — potentially increasing pressure on the industry.