Ua hōʻano hou ka International Air Transport Association (IATA) i kāna anamanaʻo o ka ka hopena kālā o ka coronavirus (COVID-19) ka pilikia olakino lehulehu ma ka ʻoihana lawe mokulele honua. ʻIke ʻo IATA i kēia manawa 2020 mau loaʻa kālā o ke ao holoʻokoʻa no ka ʻoihana ohua ma waena o $ 63 biliona (i kahi hanana i loaʻa ai ʻo COVID-19 i nā mākeke o kēia manawa me nā 100 hihia o 2 Malaki) a me $ 113 biliona (i kahi hanana me kahi hoʻolaha ākea o COVID. -19). ʻAʻole loaʻa kahi koho no ka hopena o nā hana ukana.
ʻO kā ʻIATA loiloi mua (i hoʻopuka ʻia ma 20 Pepeluali 2020) i loaʻa nā loaʻa kālā i $ 29.3 biliona e pili ana i kahi hanana e ʻike ai i ka hopena o COVID-19 i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i nā mākeke e pili pū me Kina. Mai ia manawa, ua pālahalaha ʻia ka maʻi ma nā ʻāina he 80 a ua hoʻopili nui ʻia nā hoʻopaʻa ʻana i mua ma Kina.
Ua hana ikaika nā mākeke kālā. Ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai o nā mokulele ma kahi o 25% mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka laha, ʻo kekahi mau helu pākēneka he 21 i ʻoi aku ma mua o ka hōʻole i hana ʻia i kahi manawa like i ka wā o ka pilikia SARS o 2003. ʻoi aku ma mua o kā mākou loiloi mua.
No ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ke kūlana e kū nei me COVID-19, ua manaʻo ʻo IATA i ka hopena o ka loaʻa kālā ma luna o nā loaʻa o nā mea hele ma muli o nā hanana i hiki ke hiki.
Nānā 1: Pāhola Palena
ʻO kēia hanana i loko o nā mākeke me nā ʻoi aku ma mua o 100 mau hihia COVID-19 i hōʻoia ʻia (e like me 2 Malaki) e ʻike nei i kahi hāʻule nui i ukali ʻia e kahi ʻano hoʻōla V i hoʻohālikelike ʻia. Kuhi ʻia ia hāʻule i ka hilinaʻi o nā mea kūʻai i nā mākeke ʻē aʻe (ʻAmelika Hema, ʻAsia Pākīpika a me ʻEulopa).
ʻO nā mākeke i helu ʻia i kēia hanana a me kā lākou i manaʻo ai e hāʻule i nā helu o nā ohua, ma muli o COVID-19, e like me kēia: Kina (-23%), Iapana (-12%), Singapore (-10%), Kōlea Hema ( -14%), ʻItalia (-24%), Palani (-10%), Kelemania (-10%), a me ʻIrana (-16%). Eia kekahi, ʻo Asia (ke kāpae ʻole iā Kina, Iāpana, Singapore a me Kōlea Hema) e ʻike ʻia e hāʻule ana he 11% o ka noi. ʻIke ʻo ʻEulopa (ke kāpae ʻole iā ʻItalia, Palani a me Kelemania) i kahi hāʻule he 7% o ka noi a ʻike ʻo Middle East (ke kāpae ʻia ʻo ʻIrani) e ʻike i ka hāʻule he 7% o ka noi.
Global E helu ana ʻo Kina i kahi $ 11 biliona o kēia huina. ʻO nā mākeke e pili pū me ʻAsia (me Kina) kahi $ 63 biliona o kēia huina.
Manaʻo 2: Hoʻolahalaha nui
Pili kēia hanana i kahi ʻano hana like akā i nā mākeke āpau i loaʻa i kēia manawa he 10 a ʻoi paha nā hihia COVID-19 (e like me 2 Malaki). ʻO ka hopena he 19% nalo i nā loaʻa o ka poʻe holo kaʻa puni honua, i like ia me $ 113 biliona. ʻO ke kālā, aia ia ma ka pālākiō i like me ka ʻike o ka ʻoihana i ka Global Financial Crisis.
ʻAʻole i hōʻike akāka ʻia ʻo ʻApelika a me ʻAmelike ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa / Caribbean i kēia kālailai ma muli o ka mākeke, no ka mea ʻaʻohe ʻāina i kēlā me kēia wahi me 10 mau hihia COVID-19.
Mitio
Ua hāʻule nui nā kumukūʻai aila (- $ 13 / barela Brent) mai ka
hoʻomaka o ka makahiki. Hiki i kēia ke ʻoki i nā kumukūʻai a hiki i $ 28 biliona ma ka bila wahie 2020 (ma luna o kēlā mau mālama kālā e loaʻa ana ma muli o ka hōʻemi ʻana o nā hana) e hāʻawi ana i kahi hōʻoluʻolu akā ʻaʻole ia e hoʻoliʻiliʻi i ka hopena weliweli a COVID-19 e loaʻa nei. koi. A pono e hoʻomaopopo ʻia e hoʻolohi nā hana pale i kēia hopena no nā mokulele he nui.
Ka hopena
"ʻO ka huli ʻana o nā hanana ma ke ʻano he hopena o COVID-19 he mea ʻaneʻane ʻole me ka mua. I loko o ʻelua mau mahina, ʻo ka manaʻolana o ka ʻoihana i ka hapa nui o ka honua i huli nui i ka ʻino. ʻAʻole maopopo ia pehea e ulu ai ka maʻi, akā inā ʻike mākou i ka hopena i loaʻa i kekahi mau mākeke a me kahi $ 63 biliona loaʻa kālā, a i ʻole ka hopena ākea e alakaʻi ana i kahi $ 113 biliona o ka loaʻa kālā, he pilikia kēia.
"Ke ʻoki nei nā mokulele he nui i ka hiki a lawe i nā hana pilikia e hōʻemi i nā kumukūʻai. Pono e hoʻomaopopo nā aupuni. Ke hana nei nā mokulele i kā lākou mea e hiki ai ke noho lana i kā lākou hana ʻana i ka hana nui o ka hoʻopili ʻana i nā ʻoihana o ka honua. Ke nānā nei nā aupuni i nā hana hoʻonāukiuki, pono ka ʻoihana mokulele e noʻonoʻo no ke kōkua ʻana i nā ʻauhau, nā uku a me ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i nā kau. He mau manawa kupaianaha kēia, "wahi a Alexandre de Juniac, ka Luna Nui a me Luna Nui ʻo IATA.
nānā i ka ka loiloi hopena hopena o COVID-19 (PDF)
He aha e lawe ʻia mai kēia ʻatikala:
- It is unclear how the virus will develop, but whether we see the impact contained to a few markets and a $63 billion revenue loss, or a broader impact leading to a $113 billion loss of revenue, this is a crisis.
- IATA now sees 2020 global revenue losses for the passenger business of between $63 billion (in a scenario where COVID-19 is contained in current markets with over 100 cases as of 2 March) and $113 billion (in a scenario with a broader spreading of COVID-19).
- This could cut costs up to $28 billion on the 2020 fuel bill (on top of those savings which would be achieved as a result of reduced operations) which would provide some relief but would not significantly cushion the devastating impact that COVID-19 is having on demand.
