Kūpikipiki ʻo 2008 no ka ʻoihana hōkele US

Los Angeles, Kaleponi (eTN) - Ma ka American Lodging Investment Summit (ALIS) i mālama ʻia i ka pule i hala ma LA, ua wānana ka poʻe loea hōkele kiʻekiʻe i ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana o ka ʻoihana i nā lā o kēia manawa, a i ʻole ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana. ʻO nā manaʻo nui no ka makahiki 2008 e hōʻike i ka nui o ka noho ʻana; ʻO nā kumukūʻai maʻamau a me nā loaʻa kālā e palupalu mālie i ka US, e like me ka Oxford Economics. ʻAʻole ʻike maikaʻi ka manaʻo no nā kālepa hoʻokele hōkele ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, akā e hoʻomaikaʻi paha. Ua ʻike ka makahiki 2007 i nā hāʻule nui, akā hiki i ka 2008 ke rebound i kekahi mau mākeke a me nā kūlanakauhale nui ma hope o kekahi mau hiccups.

Wahi a Mark Lomanno, ka pelekikena o Smith Travel Research, ua ʻike ka ʻoihana i ka haʻahaʻa o ka noho ʻana ma ka 0.1 pakeneka a me ka awelika o kēlā me kēia lā a i ʻole ADR ka emi ʻana he 5.9 pakeneka i ʻAukake 2007. Ua hōʻike ka ʻoihana ʻo Lomanno i ka paʻa ʻana o nā waihona waiwai o ka hōkele me nā helu noho a me nā RevPARs e ola mau ana ʻoiai ʻo ka hōʻaiʻē. i ka makahiki 2007. Aia ka nui o ka hewa o ka CMBS no ka oihana hale noho ma ka 0.6 pakeneka haahaa a hiki i ka hapaha ekolu o ka makahiki 2007. Ua hoʻomanaʻo ʻo ia, "Ua piʻi wikiwiki ka noi ma nā mākeke 25 ma mua o Sept. Ma hope o ka hāʻule wikiwiki ʻana a me ka spike hikiwawe ma hope o 11-25, ua palahalaha ke koi ma ka 2001 kiʻekiʻe. ʻAʻole i loaʻa ka lako.

"E pili ana ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana o kēia lā i nā mākeke 25 kiʻekiʻe o ka US mai lalo i luna ma mua o luna. E hoʻopili ʻia nā ʻāpana mākeke like ʻole e ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana mai lalo mai luna. E ulu ana ka lako a me ka noi ma nā ʻāpana āpau akā e hoʻomau mau ke kumukūʻai ma ka mākeke. Ua hoʻomaka ka emi ʻana o nā koi hōkele kiʻekiʻe a me nā kiʻekiʻe i nā makahiki i hala ma mua o nā hōkele ʻoihana e hōʻike ana i kahi kiʻi paʻa, "wahi a Lomanno. Akā paʻa ke koi o kēia lā no ka luna a me ke kiʻekiʻe; ikaika nā kumu kūʻai a me nā ADR; a ke ulu nei nā waiwai hoʻokele waiwai akā naʻe ma ka wikiwiki.

He kiʻi ʻokoʻa ke nānā aku i kēia manawa, e hōʻike ana i kahi manawa lohi i ka ʻoihana hōkele. E hoʻopilikia ʻia nā mākeke 25 kiʻekiʻe a me nā waiwai kiʻekiʻe akā ʻaʻole nui e like me ke kula kiʻekiʻe a me nā mākeke kula kiʻekiʻe a i ʻole nā ​​​​mea ma ka hopena haʻahaʻa o ke kumu kūʻai. "He 211,000 lumi i kūkulu ʻia ma US, ma kahi o 166,000 e wehe ʻia ma 2008; akā he 65 pakeneka wale nō e wehe maoli. E hoʻonui ʻia ka pani ʻana o nā lumi, kahi hoʻonui ʻupena o ka hoʻolako ʻana he 2.2 pakeneka i ka 2.3 pakeneka; E piʻi ka noi i kahi haʻahaʻa 1.4 pakeneka, "i ʻōlelo ai ʻo ia.

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo R. Mark Woodworth, ka pelekikena PKF Hospitality Research, i ka wā e pili ana i ka hale, ua nui nā mākeke i ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa hohonu. Ke hoʻoholo nei nā mea kūʻai aku i nā hoʻoholo paʻakikī i ke kaumaha ʻana i ka hāʻule ʻana o ka waiwai, ka haʻalulu haʻahaʻa, i hui pū ʻia e ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai aila a me ke kinoea. “E hopohopo, mai hopohopo. He pilikia kālā ʻōnaehana honua. ʻO kahi mākou e noho nei ʻo ka ʻāpana olakino olakino o ka mākeke a me ka lako a me ke koi, "wahi āna.

Ua hoʻomaka ʻo ʻAmelika i kēia ʻumi makahiki ma ke ʻano maikaʻi. Manaʻo maikaʻi ʻo Woodworth i ka wānana o kēia makahiki hou. "Ua ʻike ʻia nā manawa maikaʻi aʻe i nā makahiki 2 a 3 i hala. Ke hele nei mākou ma kēia ala i kēia lā. He aha ka maikaʻi e pili ana i ka hoʻokele waiwai 2008? E ʻike mākou i ka emi ʻana o ka uku panee e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i nā kumukūʻai aie. ʻO ke kālā nāwaliwali ke ʻano o ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka huakaʻi hele i loko (e piʻi aʻe nei mai ka makahiki 2006); Ua kōkua nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe e hoʻōki i ka piʻi ʻana o ka hana ʻole i kōkua i ka mālama ʻana i nā kumukūʻai hana hōkele. A ʻoiai ua paʻakikī nā manawa i ke kūkulu ʻia ʻana o nā hōkele, he liʻiliʻi ka poʻe hōkele i hiki ke kūkulu a hana ʻia me ka hāʻule ʻana, wahi a Woodworth.

ʻAʻole nā ​​​​mea a pau i ka rosy. He aha ka maikaʻi ʻole o 2008? Hoʻopilikia kēia kānalua i ka noi; piʻi mau ke kumukūʻai o ka halihali; a ke manaʻo nei ka poʻe akamai i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka makahiki 10.

"Ke ʻike nei mākou i ka piʻi ʻana o 100-basis mai ka hapaha ʻekolu o 2006, akā ua lohi ka noi ma hope o ka lako mai '06. Ua loaʻa iā mākou he 2 mau makahiki o ka ulu ʻana ma lalo o ka awelika ma 2001-03, ka mea i hoʻololi i ka nui o ka hana - ʻo ka wānana maikaʻi loa o ka noi hale noho ʻoihana, "wahi a Woodworth. Ua ʻōlelo mua ʻo ia, ʻo kēia hapaha 3 o 2008 e ʻike i ka wahi haʻahaʻa o ka ulu. I ka makahiki 2008, ʻoi aku ka lako ma mua o ka noi; Eia naʻe, e piʻi mai ana ka makemake i ka makahiki 2009. E emi iki ana ka poʻe noho ma luna o ka awelika e hoʻomaka ana i ka makahiki e hiki mai ana, akā maikaʻi ka piʻi ʻana o ka ulu a me nā RevPAR i 09, wahi a Woodworth.

I mea e pōmaikaʻi ai ka ʻoihana, e hoʻokomo ka hoʻolālā hoʻoulu ʻana i ke kālā hou i ka hoʻokele waiwai e like me ka mea i hana ʻia i ka makahiki 2001-2002. “E kōkua ka hoʻopiʻi ʻana o $150 B i nā ʻAmelika e pili ana i ka hana lōʻihi. ʻO ka hoʻoulu ʻana o kēlā nui e kāohi i kēlā psychology recession. Akā naʻe, ʻaʻole ia he lāʻau lapaʻau no ka pōʻaiapuni hale, "wahi a Gene Sperling, ka White House National Economic Advisor i ka wā o ka Pelekikena mua ʻo Bill Clinton, a he alakaʻi mua o ka National Economic Council. Ua hoʻohui ʻo ia ua hōʻike ka Federal Reserve i nā lā hope e hiki iā ia ke hana 'me ka wiwo ʻole a me ka wikiwiki' ma hope o ka ʻoki ʻana i nā kumu kumu 75. "Ua hāʻawi ka Feds i ka mākeke i kahi hilinaʻi. Akā ʻaʻole wau ʻike i ka neʻe hou ʻana o nā kumukūʻai me ka wikiwiki. ʻO ka nīnau maoli pehea ka lōʻihi e hiki ai i nā uku ke hele. ʻO ka manaʻo o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā uku kiʻekiʻe ma ke ʻano he paʻamau ka mea e hoʻoulu ai i ka poʻe e hōʻiliʻili pū. Me ka nāwaliwali o ke kālā a me ke kūlana kālā, e hoʻomau nā nīnau e pili ana inā hiki i ka Fed ke hoʻoikaika a hiki ke paipai iā Wakinekona e hoʻohui i ka ʻoki ʻoki me ka ulu ʻana, "i ʻōlelo ai ʻo ia me ke kanikau ʻana, ʻaʻole nui ka maʻalahi ma laila.

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Sperling he nui ka poʻe e noho i ko lākou mau home inā hiki iā lākou ke loaʻa i kahi helu paʻa 30 mau makahiki ma kahi pae kūpono. ʻO nā foreclosures, i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma kahi kaiāulu, ua loaʻa nā hopena weliweli i nā kumukūʻai home ma luna o nā mea ʻē aʻe. “Ua manaʻo ʻo Hillary Clinton lāua ʻo Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger e hoʻokuʻu i nā uku ma ke ʻano he paʻamau no kekahi mau makahiki. Akā, nui ka poʻe i hoʻopiʻi. ʻO ka pilikia i kēia manawa ke hele nei mākou i kahi manawa o ka hoʻoponopono hou ʻana, "wahi āna.

Hoʻokumu ʻo Lomanno i nā puke e pili ana i nā uku ma muli o ka pūnaewele e ʻike i ka palupalu. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo ia he 2008 pakeneka ka emi iki mai ka makahiki 5.2; akā naʻe, ʻaʻole e ʻike ʻia kēia ʻano ma nā mākeke nui a i ʻole nā ​​pae kiʻekiʻe. "Inā pololei ka lako a me ka noi a me nā helu wānana ADR, e ʻike ʻo REVPAR i ka ulu ʻana o 2007 pakeneka," wahi āna.

"ʻO ke kumukūʻai maikaʻi ʻole ka hoaaloha o ka ʻoihana hōkele i ka makahiki i hala. He maikaʻi loa nā hoʻopaʻa ʻana ma Expedia a me ADR o ka hapaha 4 o 2007. Inā mākou e hoʻololi i nā lilo no ka poʻe Kanada a i ʻole Australia e kipa ana i ka US, uku lākou i ka liʻiliʻi i kā lākou kālā kūloko ke hele mai lākou i ka US a loaʻa nā hōkele i ka piha. ʻIke mākou no ka laʻana, hoʻohana ka ʻohana Kelemania i ka Euro 26 hou aʻe i ka wā i hele mai ai lākou (ʻaʻohe mea iā lākou), akā he makani ia i ka mea hoʻolako e loaʻa hou aku, "wahi a Paul Brown, pelekikena o Expedia North America. Ua hoʻohui ʻo ia ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ka 20 pakeneka o ka nui o ka ea a me nā kumukūʻai o ka ea, nā ʻokoʻa o ka hoʻololi ʻana o nā ʻāina ʻē i 'mau mua' ʻAmelika e hele ana a koi aku i ka huakaʻi home e hoʻonui, ʻo ia nā mea nui e pili ana i ka noi hale.

Ke kūpaʻa mau nei nā kumukūʻai hōkele no nā waiwai kiʻekiʻe. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Brown, aia nā mea kūʻai aku i ka ʻike o ka waiwai; alakaʻi ʻia lākou e nā kūʻai aku, nā kuʻikahi a me nā hāʻawi. E hoʻonui nā hōkele i ka makahiki 2008 i 4 pakeneka me ke kūʻai aku ma ka hoʻolaha. Pane mau nā mea kūʻai aku i nā hāʻawi hoʻolaha. Ke hoʻohana nei nā mea kūʻai aku, i loko o kēia hoʻokele waiwai lohi, i ke kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa.
"Inā pololei kā mākou mau wānana i ka lako a me ka noi, e ulu ka poʻe noho i ka 63.2 pakeneka ma 2008 a i ka 63.7 pakeneka ma 2009 ma waena o ka papa," wahi a Lomanno.

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Woodworth: "Inā pololei kā mākou wānana, ʻo ka hapalua o nā mākeke 50 kiʻekiʻe ma US, e ʻike i ka emi ʻana o kēia makahiki ma muli o ka hoʻolako ʻana a me nā ʻano koi. I ka makahiki 2009, e wikiwiki ana ka lako vs. E maikaʻi ka ulu ʻana o RevPAR i kēia makahiki. ʻAʻole e hoʻokumu ka inflation i nā pilikia ma ka mākeke hana. E lilo ana ka palupalu makeke i ka wā pōkole. Aia nā kumukū'ai nui o nā hōkele ma nā ha'aha'a kaulana me ka makahiki 2007 ma lalo o ka pālākiō; eia naʻe, aia ka piʻi ʻana he 160 mau kumu i ka mākeke a hiki i ka hopena o nā makahiki.

I ka makahiki koho, e ulu ana ka lako i 2.3 pakeneka o ka makemake, wahi a Lomanno.
Ke ʻimi nei i kā lākou hopena i ka makahiki koho mai ka makahiki 1929, i ka emi ʻana o ka noho ʻana, 2/3 o ka manawa, lanakila ka moho Repubalika i kahi koho balota. "Ke hāʻule ka poʻe noho i kahi makahiki koho ma lalo o ka awelika lōʻihi, 55 pakeneka o ka manawa, lanakila ka moho Demokarata. Manaʻo mākou e loaʻa iā mākou ma lalo o ka awelika o ka noho lōʻihi, "pani ʻia ʻo Woodworth.