ka ʻAhahui Kaʻa Mokulele ʻĀina (IATA) ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia i nā kānana hou e hōʻike ana i ka hōʻino ʻana i ka huakaʻi ea mai COVID-19 a hiki i loko o ka wā waena, me ka wā lōʻihi / huakaʻi kaiāulu ka hopena nui loa. ʻO nā hana Quarantine i ka hōʻea ʻana e hōʻino hou ai i ka hilinaʻi i ka huakaʻi ea. ʻO kahi papa layered e kau ʻia i nā hopena biosecurity a puni ka honua e koʻikoʻi no ka hoʻomaka hou.

Nā hanana huakaʻi ea

Ua hoʻohālikelike ʻo IATA a me Tourism Economics i nā hanana huakaʻi hele ʻelua.

ʻO Scenario Baseline

Kūpono kēia ma nā mākeke kūloko e wehe ana ma Q3, me ka lohi loa o ka wehe ʻana o nā mākeke kūwaho. E kaupalena kēia i ka hoʻihoʻi huakaʻi lewa, ʻoiai ka hapanui o nā wānana e kuhikuhi ana i kahi rebound hoʻokele waiwai ikaika i ka hopena o kēia makahiki a me ka 2021.
I ka 2021 manaʻo mākou i ka noi o ka poʻe holo kaʻa honua (ana ʻia i nā mile o ka poʻe loaʻa kālā, RPK) 24% ma lalo o nā pae 2019 a me 32% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka IATA ʻOkakopa 2019 Air Passenger wanana no 2021.
ʻAʻole mākou e manaʻo e ʻoi aku ka nui o nā pae 2019 a hiki i ka 2023.
I ka wehe ʻana o nā mākeke kūwaho a hoʻi hou nā hoʻokele waiwai, e ulu hou aʻe ka huakaʻi ea mai ka wahi haʻahaʻa 2020. Akā i ka 2025 manaʻo mākou e 10% ka haʻahaʻa o nā RPK honua ma mua o ka wanana i hala.

ʻO Scenario Pessimistic

Hoʻokumu ʻia kēia i ka wehe lohi o nā ʻoihana a me ka hoʻomaha ʻana o nā kaohi huakaʻi, me nā lockdowns e hoʻonui ana i Q3, ma muli paha o ka nalu ʻelua o ka maʻi. E hoʻopaneʻe hou kēia i ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana o ka huakaʻi ea.
I kēia hihia, hiki i nā RPK honua ma 2021 ke 34% ma lalo o nā pae 2019 a me 41% ma lalo o kā mākou wanana ma mua no 2021.

"ʻO ka stimulus nui mai nā aupuni i hui pū ʻia me nā inikua wai e nā panakō kikowaena e hoʻonui i ka hoʻōla waiwai i ka manawa e kāohi ʻia ka maʻi ahulau. Akā, ʻoi aku ka lōʻihi o ke kūkulu hou ʻana i ka hilinaʻi o ka poʻe holo. A ʻoiai, e hoʻokele pono nā mea huakaʻi pilikino a me nā ʻoihana hui i nā lilo huakaʻi a pili kokoke i ka home, "i ʻōlelo ʻo Alexandre de Juniac, ka Luna Nui a me Luna Nui ʻo IATA.

ʻOi aku ka hopena o ka hopena huakaʻi lōʻihi

Ke hoʻomaka ka hoʻihoʻi, manaʻo ʻia e alakaʻi ʻia e ka huakaʻi home.

ʻImi ʻia kahi huakaʻi IATA o nā huakaʻi lewa hou i mālama ʻia i ʻApelila 2020 i ʻike ʻia he 58% paha ka mea e kaohi i kā lākou huakaʻi mua i nā huakaʻi home.
E hoʻi hou nā Kilometers Pepa Waihona Kālā (RPK) i nā pae 2019 e 2022. E hoʻi wale nā RPK International i nā pae 2019 i 2024.

"ʻO nā hopena o ka pilikia ma ka huakaʻi hele lōʻihi e ʻoi aku ka nui a ʻoi aku ka lōʻihi o ka lōʻihi ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia ma nā mākeke kūloko. Hoʻoholo kēia a puni ka honua a hoʻokō i nā kūlana biosecurity no ke kaʻina huakaʻi a ʻoi aku ka koʻikoʻi. He puka liʻiliʻi kā mākou e hōʻalo ai i nā hopena o nā hana unilateral uncoordinated i hōʻailona i ka wā ma hope o 9.11. Pono mākou e hana wikiwiki, "wahi a de Juniac.

Hōʻalo i nā ana Quarantine

Koi ikaika ʻo IATA i nā aupuni e ʻimi i nā mea ʻē aʻe i ka mālama ʻana a i ʻole ka hoʻolauna ʻana i nā ana quarantine hōʻea ma ke ʻano he ʻāpana o nā kaohi huakaʻi ma hope o ka pandemia. ʻO ka loiloi ʻana o ʻIATA ma ʻApelila o nā huakaʻi ʻea i hōʻike ʻia i kēlā

86% o ka poʻe huakaʻi i hopohopo a hopohopo paha e pili ana i ka quarantined i ka wā e huakaʻi ana, a
ʻAʻole manaʻo ʻo 69% o nā mea huakaʻi i kēia manawa i ka huakaʻi inā pili i kahi manawa quarantine he 14 mau lā.

"ʻOiai i loko o nā kūlana ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi e lilo kēia pilikia i nā hana he nui a ʻaihue i ka hoʻokele waiwai o nā makahiki o ka ulu ʻana o ka lele. I mea e pale ai i ka hiki i ka mokulele ke lilo i mea hōʻeleu no ka hoʻōla hoʻokele waiwai, ʻaʻole pono mākou e hōʻino i kēlā wānana ma o ka hana ʻole ʻana i ka huakaʻi me nā ana quarantine. Pono mākou i kahi hopena no ka huakaʻi palekana e kamaʻilio ana i nā pilikia ʻelua. Pono e hāʻawi i ka poʻe kaʻa i ka hilinaʻi e huakaʻi me ka palekana a me ka ʻole o ka hassle. A pono e hāʻawi i nā aupuni i ka hilinaʻi e pale ʻia lākou mai ka lawe ʻana mai i ka maʻi. ʻO kā mākou noi no ka hoʻomoe ʻana i nā ana quarantine ʻole kūlohelohe a hiki i ka loaʻa ʻana o kahi lāʻau āpau, passport passports a i ʻole kokoke koke COVID-19 hoʻokolohua i loaʻa i ka pālākiō, "wahi a de Juniac.

ʻO ka noi a IATA no kahi papa kau papaha e pili ana i ka pilikia no ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā aupuni i ka hilinaʻi e wehe i kā lākou palena me ka ʻole o ka hōʻea ʻana i nā hōʻea.

Kāohi i ka huakaʻi ʻia e ka poʻe i hōʻailona me ka loiloi ʻana o ka wela a me nā ana ʻē aʻe
Ke kamaʻilio nei i nā pilikia o nā huakaʻi asymptomat me nā aupuni e hoʻokele ana i kahi ʻōnaehana koʻikoʻi o nā olakino olakino a me ka huli ikaika ʻana.

ʻO ka ʻae like ʻana i nā ana i ʻae ʻia he mea nui ia no ka hoʻomau hou ʻana o ka huakaʻi honua. ʻO kēia kahi kī nui i lawe ʻia mai ka COVID-19 Aviation Recovery Task Force (CART) o ka International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

"He hana nui kā CART me ka manawa liʻiliʻi e hoʻonele ai. Pono e ʻike i kahi ʻaelike ma waena o nā mokuʻāina e pili ana i nā ana e pono ai ka kaohi ʻana iā COVID-19 i ka hoʻomaka hou ʻana o ka mokulele. A pono ia e kūkulu i ka hilinaʻi ma waena o nā aupuni i hiki ke wehe i nā palena i ka poʻe huakaʻi no ka mea ua hoʻokau pono ʻia kahi papa o nā ana i ka honua. Kākoʻo ʻo IATA a me ka ʻoihana holoʻokoʻa i kēia hana koʻikoʻi, "wahi a de Juniac.

# pūnaehulehu

He aha e lawe ʻia mai kēia ʻatikala:

This is based on a slower opening of economies and relaxation of travel restrictions, with lockdowns extending into Q3, possibly due to a second wave of the virus.
“The impacts of the crisis on long-haul travel will be much more severe and of a longer duration than what is expected in domestic markets.
Our proposal is for a layering of temporary non-quarantine measures until we have a vaccine, immunity passports or nearly instant COVID-19 testing available at scale,” said de Juniac.